Trend Analysis of Temperature Variations in Bihar: Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Deceleration Patterns

Abstract

This study analyses long-term temperature trends in Bihar, India, with a specific focus on identifying potential deceleration patterns. Bihar, a region with significant agricultural and climatic variability, is highly sensitive to temperature changes, making trend analysis crucial for understanding climate change impacts, formulating mitigation strategies, and ensuring sustainable development. To assess these trends, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator tests were applied to temperature data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Patna for a 70-year period (1951–2021). Monthly, seasonal, and annual temperature trends were computed for selected districts, and the correlation between observed data and IMD datasets was analysed. The Mann-Kendall test results varied across districts, with values ranging from -0.258 to 0.442, while p-values ranged from 0.002 to 1.00, indicating varying levels of statistical significance. The findings suggest minimal temperature variation across the selected districts, with a notable increase in warm days and a greater rise in minimum temperatures compared to maximum temperatures. Significant trends were observed in seasonal and annual minimum temperatures, potentially leading to an increased incidence of heat stress-related diseases and urban warming. This comprehensive analysis of temperature variation indices provides valuable insights into regional climate dynamics, which can aid policymakers and stakeholders in climate adaptation and resilience planning.