Assessment of climate change impacts on water balance using the swat model and conservation measures in agricultural watersheds: a comprehensive review
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Abstract
Climate change has become one of the most significant challenges affecting watershed hydrology, with profound implications for water resources, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem sustainability. Variations in temperature, precipitation patterns, and the frequency of extreme weather events are altering watershed water balance components, including surface runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, soil moisture dynamics, and streamflow regimes. Agricultural watersheds are particularly susceptible to these changes due to their strong dependence on climatic conditions and water availability. This review synthesizes and critically evaluates recent studies employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology and to investigate the effectiveness of conservation measures in enhancing watershed resilience. Literature from diverse climatic regions was analyzed under different climate change scenarios, including Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The findings reveal that climate change is expected to increase hydrological variability, intensify droughts and floods, modify seasonal water availability, and influence groundwater recharge and streamflow patterns. Furthermore, conservation interventions such as best management practices (BMPs), conservation tillage, cover cropping, agroforestry systems, vegetative buffer strips, and water-harvesting structures have demonstrated considerable potential to mitigate adverse hydrological impacts and improve watershed sustainability. Despite these advancements, uncertainties related to climate projections, model parameterization, calibration procedures, input data quality, and long-term conservation effectiveness remain significant challenges. Emerging developments, including SWAT+, CMIP6-based climate projections, geospatial technologies, remote sensing, artificial intelligence, and nature-based solutions, offer promising opportunities for improving watershed assessment and supporting climate-resilient water resource management. This review provides a comprehensive synthesis of current knowledge and identifies future research directions for sustainable watershed planning under changing climatic conditions.
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