Global Warming Assessment through Temperature Anomalies, CO₂ Forcing, and Climate Dynamics

Abstract

This paper presents a physics-based study of long-term global surface temperature variations. Time series of annual temperature anomalies obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration GISTEMP database and atmospheric CO₂ concentration data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been used to examine the trends and changes in global warming. It was found that there is a statistical evidence of a warming trend up to 2025 with recent anomalies exceeding ~1.2 °C. The change point analysis shows that there is a transition around 1974, signifying the beginning of the rapid warming period. The nonlinear regression model shows that the trend is not linear but accelerating, showing that the system is not in equilibrium. The spectral analysis shows no strong periodicity, but the correlation analysis shows a significant positive association (r ≈ 0.97) between temperature anomaly and CO₂ concentration. A logarithmic relationship between temperature and CO₂ is found to be consistent with the theory behind radiative forcing. The decadal analysis shows that there has been increased warming in recent decades, while the uncertainty analysis proves that the findings are statistically valid. The novelty of this study lies in integrating multiple statistical and physics-based approaches within a unified framework to provide a comprehensive understanding of global temperature dynamics.