Spatiotemporal Changes of Landuse and Landcover of Mount Data National Park, Northern Luzon Highlands, Philippines
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Abstract
Geographically, the study area lies entirely within the municipalities of Sabangan, Tadian, and Bauko in Mountain Province, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), centered at 16°52'41" N latitude and 120°50'18" E longitude. The Mount Data National Park (MDNP), spanning an approximate area of 3,502.10 hectares based on data generated by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources–Community Environment and Natural Resources Office (DENR-CENRO) Sabangan. Unprecedented anthropogenic activities and changing socioeconomic dynamics continue to alter land use and land cover (LULC) across fragile highland ecosystems. This study evaluated historical LULC shifts over a 30-year period (1990–2020) and projected future spatial patterns for 2030 in Mount Data National Park (MDNP) using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and the QGIS Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) framework integrated with an Artificial Neural Network–Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP) model. Historical LULC thematic maps for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 were classified into four standardized categories: forest cover, agricultural land, shrub/grassland, and built-up areas. Spatiotemporal transition matrices were generated to assess category conversions, while digital elevation models (DEM), slope, aspect, built-up density, and distance to roads and streams served as explanatory spatial variables for the 2030 projection. Model validation yielded a maximum Kappa coefficient of 0.76 and an overall correctness of 84.96%, confirming high predictive accuracy. Baseline assessments in 1990 revealed that forest cover (1,374.61 ha; 39.29%) and agricultural land (1,267.99 ha; 36.24%) dominated the landscape, followed by shrub/grassland (15.70%) and built-up areas (8.78%). By 2010, rapid agricultural expansion reached a peak share of 51.93%, largely encroaching into forest reserves. Between 2010 and 2020, agricultural land contracted slightly to 50.73%, whereas shrub/grassland surged from 11.42% to 17.15% (399.32 ha to 600.08 ha), aligning with regional declines in highland vegetable production reported by the Philippine Statistics Authority. Built-up area detection anomalies were attributed to spectral signatures from smart polyethylene greenhouses. Predictive modeling for 2030 indicates a continuation of long-term trajectories relative to the 1990 baseline, with forest cover and built-up areas projected to decrease overall by 14.49% and 5.37%, respectively, while agricultural land and shrub/grassland are expected to expand by 16.96% and 2.89%. These findings underscore persistent pressures on natural forest habitats and highlight the critical need for spatial land-use monitoring, boundary enforcement, and sustainable agroforestry management within the national park.
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Based on the findings of this study, the following measures are recommended to balance ecological conservation and agricultural livelihoods within the Mount Data National Park (MDNP):
1. Harmonize Inter-Institutional Policies and Objectives
The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR-CENRO Sabangan), Local Government Units (LGUs), and Municipal Agriculture Offices (OMAG) should align their institutional mandates. Establishing a unified inter-agency framework will reconcile conflicts between reforestation efforts and agricultural support, ensuring sustainable land management without compromising farmers' livelihoods.
2. Strengthen Collaborative Land-Use Planning
The MDNP Protected Area Management Board (PAMB), together with DENR-CENRO and municipal agricultural offices, should utilize the spatiotemporal LULC data and predictive trends from this study to formulate a comprehensive, zoned DateTime-based land-use plan. Clear boundaries must be enforced to prevent the encroachment of vegetable farming into remaining mossy and pine forest reserves.
3. Promote Sustainable Agricultural Practices (SLM)
LGUs-OMAG and agricultural extension officers should encourage sustainable, high-value farming techniques that maximize yield per unit area rather than spatial expansion. Integrating agroforestry systems near buffer zones can help farmers maintain household earnings while active forest conservation is prioritized.
4. Establish Continuous LULC and Infrastructure Monitoring
Relevant agencies should adopt regular GIS and remote sensing monitoring to track land-cover shifts, agricultural expansion, and temporary structures (such as greenhouse installations). Continuous spatial tracking will allow PAMB and local authorities to make proactive, evidence-based policy adjustments to mitigate biodiversity loss and land degradation.
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