Temporal Dynamics of Land Use Land Cover Change and Future Prediction Analysis Using Geospatial Techniques for Tamluk, Purba Medinipur, West Bengal

Abstract

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) mapping is a fundamental aspect of spatial analysis in fields such as urban planning, environmental management, agriculture, forestry, and climate change studies and the basic information for planning and management at various administrative levels. Research on the temporal changes in LULC patterns and the simulation of future scenarios provides a comprehensive understanding of both current and future development trends, especially for the areas undergoing rapid changes. The study involving Tamluk Community Development block of Purba Medinipur district, West Bengal, India uses the MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS (Quantum Geographic Information System) for LULC prediction. Digital Elevation Model (DEM), aspect, slope and distance from roads are the spatial variables which are used to learn processes of the artificial neural network and cellular automata (ANN-CA) model within MOLUSCE to project future LULC (i.e. of 2031).  LULC maps of 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 are used as basic building blocks. Using the 2011 and 2021 LULC maps along with spatial variable maps, the 2031 LULC map was simulated. In the validation phase, the predicted LULC for 2031 achieved 89.43% accuracy and an overall kappa of 0.86, indicating a high degree of prediction accuracy. The predicted LULC for the years 2031 shows notable growth in water bodies (especially fish ponds/bheris) and built-up areas, with increase rates of 22.33% and 10.13% respectively in 2031. The study will probably assist the local administrative bodies and decision-makers in creating optimal land use plans and management strategies ensuring sustainability.