A Localized Community-Centered Early Warning System Framework for Climate Risk Management in Jordan

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of climate-related hazards worldwide, placing growing pressure on governments, municipalities, and communities to strengthen preparedness and resilience. Early Warning Systems (EWS) have emerged as a critical component of disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation efforts, particularly in vulnerable regions facing increasing exposure to floods, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events. In Jordan, while significant progress has been achieved in strengthening national early warning capacities, challenges remain in translating warning information into effective local preparedness and response actions. This study assesses the current status of climate-related Early Warning Systems in Irbid and Ramtha, Jordan, and examines opportunities for strengthening localized and community-centered approaches to climate-risk management. The research adopted a qualitative case-study design combining desk review, institutional analysis, stakeholder consultations, and focus group discussions. The assessment was guided by the four pillars of people-centered Early Warning Systems promoted under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative: risk knowledge, monitoring and forecasting, warning dissemination and communication, and preparedness and response capacity. The findings indicate that Jordan has established a progressively evolving institutional framework for climate-related Early Warning Systems. However, significant gaps persist at municipal and community levels, including limited integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), fragmented data management systems, weak interoperability between national and local information platforms, insufficient impact-based warning mechanisms, and challenges related to last-mile communication and community engagement. The study further demonstrates that warning effectiveness depends not only on forecasting capabilities and technological infrastructure, but also on community awareness, preparedness, trust in institutions, and the ability of vulnerable populations to access and act upon warning information. Based on these findings, the study proposes a Localized Community-Centered Early Warning System Framework that strengthens linkages between national forecasting institutions, municipalities, and local communities through integrated risk analysis, GIS-supported decision-making, multi-channel communication mechanisms, anticipatory action planning, and community participation. The study also highlights the role of the Al-Munther Climate Initiative, a community-based climate awareness and preparedness initiative, as a complementary mechanism for strengthening climate literacy, risk awareness, and public engagement within localized Early Warning Systems. The proposed framework provides practical insights for advancing impact-based and people-centered Early Warning Systems in climate-vulnerable and resource-constrained settings. Although developed in the context of Irbid and Ramtha, its principles may be adapted and replicated in other municipalities across Jordan and the wider Middle East region to support climate resilience, disaster preparedness, and sustainable risk governance.