Mathematical Modelling of Epidemic Transmission Dynamics and Numerical Analysis

Main Article Content

A. Bhuvaneswari
S. Mathankumar

Abstract

This research explores the dynamics of epidemic construction employing the traditional Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological framework within a population. Iterative methods can be performed to address the group of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. To analyze the given model, we employ the Variational Iteration Method (VIM). To prove the efficiency and exactness of the VIM, we perform a comparison assessment with the classical Runge-Kutta method, a broadly used numerical method. We formulate the iterative protocols for each method and implement them in MatLab R2025a to produce numerical observations over a specified period of time. This research offers important awareness of the transmission and oversight of infectious diseases. The numerical representation reinforces that the VIM provides an effective approach for identifying the epidemic patterns and for framing control tactics.

Article Details

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Mathematical Modelling of Epidemic Transmission Dynamics and Numerical Analysis (A. Bhuvaneswari & S. Mathankumar, Trans.). (2026). International Journal of Aquatic Research and Environmental Studies, 6(S1), 360-371. https://doi.org/10.70102/4931ay74

References

1. Abdy, M., Side, S., Annas, S., Nur, W. & Sanusi, W.,” An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia,” Advances in Difference Equations, vol. 2021, no.1, pp. 1-12, 2021.

2. [Aguiar, M., Steindorf, V., Srivastav, A.K., Stollenwerk, N. & Kooi, B.W.,” Bifurcation analysis of a two infection SIR-SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity and disease enhancement,” Nonlinear Dynamics, vol. 112, no.15, pp. 13621-13639, 2024.

3. Avram, F., Adenane, R. & Ketcheson, D.I.,” A Review of Matrix SIR Arino Epidemic Models,” Mathematics, vol. 9, no.1, pp. 1-25, 2021.

4. Balderrama, R., Peressutti, J., Pinasco, J.P., Vazquez, F. & de la Vega, C.S.,” Optimal control for a SIR epidemic model with limited quarantine,” vol. 12, no.1, pp. 1-10, 2022.

5. Chawla, S.R., Ahmad, S., Khan, A., Albalawi, W., Nisar, K.S. & Ali, H.M.,” Stability analysis and optimal control of a generalized SIR epidemic model with harmonic mean type of incidence and nonlinear recovery rates,” Alexandria Engineering Journal, vol. 97, no.1, pp. 44-60, 2024.

6. D.K.C. Vijaya, Gowda, P.D. & Hadimani, B.,” A numerical study on the dynamics of SIR epidemic model through Genocchi wavelet collocation method,” Scientific Reports, vol. 15, no.1, pp. 1-12, 2025.

7. Garibaldi, P., Moen, E.R. & Pissarides, C.A.,” Modelling contacts and transitions in the SIR epidemics model,” Covid Economics, vol. 5, no.1, pp. 1-21, 2020.

8. Ghaneai, H. & Hosseini, M.M.,” Variational iteration method with auxiliary parameter for solving wave-like and heat-like equations in large domains,” Computers & Mathematics with Applications, vol. 69, no.5, pp. 363-373, 2015.

9. Gunasekaran, N., Vadivel, R., Zhai, G. & Vinoth, S.,” Finite-time stability analysis and control of stochastic SIR epidemic model,” Biomedical Signal Processing and Control, vol. 86, pp. 1-12, 2023.

10. Ji-Huan He,” Variational iteration method-a kind of non-linear analytical technique: Some examples,” International Journal of Nonlinear Mechanics, vol. 34, no.4, pp. 699-708, 1999.

11. Ji-Huan He,” Variational iteration method for autonomous ordinary differential systems,” Applied Mathematics and Computation, vol. 114, no.2-3, pp. 115-123, 2000.

12. Ji-Huan He,” Variational iteration method - Some recent results and new interpretations,” Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, vol. 207, no.1, pp. 3-17, 2007.

13. Inokuti, M., Sekine, H. & Mura, T.,” General use of the Lagrange multiplier in non-linear mathematical physics,” Variational Method in the Mechanics of Solids, pp. 156-162, 1978.

14. Li, S.,” SIR Epidemic Model with General Nonlinear Incidence Rate and Levy Jumps,” Mathematics, vol. 12, no.2, pp. 1-18, 2024.

15. Li, B., Eskandari, Z. & Avazzadeh, Z.,” Dynamical Behaviors of an SIR Epidemic Model with Discrete Time,” Fractal and Fractional, vol. 6, no.11, pp. 1-20, 2022.

16. Malik, K. & Althobaiti, S.,” Impact of the infected population and nonlinear incidence rate on the dynamics of the SIR model,” Advances in Continuous and Discrete Models, vol. 2025, no.1, pp. 1-15, 2025.

17. Narayanamoorthy, S. & Mathankumar, S.,” Variational iterative method: an approximate numerical scheme for solving system of linear Volterra fuzzy integro-differential equations,” Advances in Difference Equations, vol. 2018, no.1, pp. 1-15, 2018.

18. Odibat, Z.M.,” A study on the convergence of variational iteration method,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, vol. 51, no.9-10, pp. 1181-1192, 2010.

19. Prodanov, D.,” Analytical solutions and parameter estimation of the SIR epidemic model,” Mathematical Analysis of Infectious Diseases, Academic Press, pp. 163-189, 2022.

20. Prodanov, D.,” Analytical Parameter Estimation of the SIR Epidemic Model: Applications to the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Entropy, vol. 23, no.1, pp. 1-15, 2021.

21. Singh, P. & Gupta, A.,” Generalized SIR (GSIR) epidemic model: An improved framework for the predictive monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic,” ISA Transactions, vol. 124, pp. 31-40, 2022.

22. Tang, X. & Chen, Y.,” Analysis of the Diffusion SIR Epidemic Model with Networked Delay and Nonlinear Incidence Rate,” Journal of Mathematics, vol. 2024, no.1, pp. 1-12, 2024.

23. Tian, C., Zhang, Q. & Zhang, L.,” Global stability in a networked SIR epidemic model,” Applied Mathematics Letters, vol. 107, pp. 106-112, 2020.

24. Hajji, M., Sayari, S. & Zaghdani, A.,” Mathematical analysis of an SIR epidemic model in a continuous reactor-deterministic and probabilistic approaches,” Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society, vol. 58, no.1, pp. 45-67, 2021.

25. Qazza, A. & Saadeh, R.,” On the Analytical Solution of Fractional SIR Epidemic Model,” Applied Computational Intelligence and Soft Computing, vol. 2023, pp. 1-12, 2023.

26. Svoboda, D., Havelka, O., Holendova, J. & Kraft, J.,” An epidemiological model of SIR in a nano technological innovation environment,” Heliyon, vol. 11, no.3, pp. 1-12, 2025.