Assessing the Electrification Potential of Heavy-Duty Road Freight in India: A Duty-Cycle and Well-to-Wheel Emissions Assessment

Abstract

Battery-electric heavy-duty trucks are entering commercial service in India, but whether they reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a coal-intensive grid depends on how efficient they are relative to the diesel operations they replace. Existing Indian assessments rely largely on representative vehicle archetypes and simulated drive cycles. This study links operator-reported duty cycles of 92 diesel trucks (22 operators, northern India) with electric-truck specifications, one measured electric trip and a register of 58 electric-truck deployment records to estimate well-to-wheel (WTW) emissions, break-even conditions and operational feasibility by freight segment. Diesel WTW emissions ranged from 0.40 to 2.13 kg CO₂e/km across five segments, and 47.5-t construction tippers accounted for 71% of the sample's 11,128 t CO₂e per year. On the current national grid (0.727 kg CO₂/kWh), the modelled electric counterfactual reduced WTW emissions by 43% for tippers, 14% for medium trucks and 4% for 40–55-t trucks but increased them by 52–59% for 14–32-t rigid and box trucks whose diesel baselines are already efficient (6.5–7 km/L). The break-even electric-truck energy consumption, which is independent of annual distance, ranged from 0.50 to 2.64 kWh/km. Under the projected 2029–30 grid (0.477 kg CO₂/kWh), all segments except 28–32-t box trucks broke even or better, and solar charging yielded reductions of 91–97%. Feasibility was a separate constraint: only one 55-t model covered the median daily energy demand on a single charge, most cases required a mid-shift charge of 0.3–7.4 h, and payload was insufficient for tipper and medium-truck proxies. Screening of the deployment register suggested that about one-third of deployed trucks operate captive port, mine or in-plant duty cycles compatible with a single daily charge. The findings indicate that the GHG case for heavy duty electrification in India is segment-specific and conditional on vehicle efficiency and grid decarbonization, and they provide a transparent break-even framework that can be updated as measured Indian electric-truck data become available.