Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in Saudi Arabia: Methods, Challenges, and Future Directions Under Climate Change

Abstract

Saudi Arabia is  considered as one of the driest countries with an arid climate, extremely low rainfall and high temperatures. Rapid population growth, and  expansion of both agriculture and industrial sectors have intensified water scarcity and increased the frequency and severity of droughts across the country. This article reviewed and summarized peer‑reviewed research that have explored drought monitoring and drought forecasting in Saudi Arabia over the past three decades. The studies included in this review were categorized into two main groups: research on drought monitoring and research on drought forecasting. These studies were reviewed in terms of drought indices used, data sources, modeling approaches and major findings. Results revealed that drought conditions have intensified in many parts of the country since the late 1990s with multi-year droughts recorded in 2007–2008 and 2013–2014. Results of meteorological indicators revealed noticeable drying trends at medium- and long-term temporal scales. However remote sensing–based studies reported an increasing vegetation stress particularly across the central and southern regions. In addition, climate projection studies suggest that potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase at a considerably higher rate than precipitation indicating that future drought conditions may intensify under both moderate- and high-emission scenarios. Although drought forecasting studies in Saudi Arabia remain relatively limited, the existing studies showed considerable potential for short- and medium-term prediction. However, the application of these existing studies is still constrained by limited geographical coverage. This review reported several issues such as limited field observations network, insufficient integration of multi-source datasets and the need for advanced national-scale drought forecasting framework. Addressing these issues by improving the monitoring and forecasting approaches is high priority to enhance early warning systems, support sustainable water resource management and to improve climate adaptation strategies in accordance with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.