Abstract

The research develops a box-type model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system to analyze the varying fields interacting with the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) and their reaction to climate change. The research identify a strong convective limit on atmospheric heat transportation, which categorizes the climate system into warm and cold offices; unlike the saline method used in earlier box designs, the cold state, if permitted, exhibits a similarly signed but weaker volume contrast and THC as the current climate, potentially elucidating how it emerged from coupled overall circulation theories. The research emphasizes the nondeterminacy of the THC resulting from random eddy shedding and utilizes the fluctuation theory to limit the shedding rate, resolving the issue. The derivation indicates an ocean driven towards Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) across millennial timescales, referred to as "MEP-adjustment," with the extended duration resulting from the cumulative impact of microscopic changes in the shedding ratio and their marginal likelihood skew. Climate change provokes hysteresis among the two branches, akin to that observed in GCMs; the cold changeover is far more responsive to soaking than heating impacts, as the former would be mitigated by hydrological response. The uni- or bi-modality of the present state, if the THC returns during the cold transition, depends on the average worldwide convection flux and is challenging to evaluate due to its observed unpredictability.

Keywords: Thermohaline circulation, Ocean, Heat transfer, Marine species